KYIV, Ukraine — The Black Sea peninsula of Crimea is normally packed in the summer with families enjoying beach vacations. But not this year, as Ukraine's relentless drone strikes make life increasingly miserable.
"Transportation is completely at a standstill. No gasoline, no fuel, no power. The stores are closed. The banks are closed. Nothing works at all. There's no water either," a Russian woman said on social media.
No one expected this.
Crimea was the first place Russian leader Vladimir Putin seized when he initially invaded Ukraine in 2014. An estimated 1 million Russian troops and civilians have poured into the territory to make it more Russian and less Ukrainian. With the Russian influx, and the departure of many Ukrainians, Crimea's population is now estimated at around 2.5 million.
Ukraine has vowed to get Crimea back and carried out periodic drone strikes in recent years, with limited effect. But the campaign has ramped up dramatically in the past couple months.
Russian military facilities have been hit hard, especially in the northern part of Crimea. For civilians, a critical shortage of basic services keeps getting worse in a place that relies heavily on imports.
"Putin's got a problem here," said Mark Montgomery, a retired U.S. Navy rear admiral who comes to Ukraine regularly to help train the military. He's been keeping a close watch on Crimea.
"You cannot keep that many people in a place with limited water, no fuel, limited foodstuffs. I mean, they're going to have to leave," he said.
A coveted territory
Crimea juts out into both the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, and this location, along with its mild climate, has made it a prize for centuries. Russian Empress Catherine the Great first brought the territory into the Russian Empire in 1783.
For Russia's military, Crimea is a vital warm-water naval port to the south. On the civilian side, tourists come every summer for the beaches and the picturesque views of the sea and the mountains.
Hanna Shelest, the head of security programs at the Ukrainian Prism think tank, said Russians eagerly moved to Crimea a decade ago.
"Some of the Russian military were coming together with their families, buying property and dreaming about staying there."
They often took over homes vacated by Ukrainians who had fled. Russian security forces still maintain tight control over Ukrainians who have remained.
"You are arrested if you speak Ukrainian, if you have a Ukrainian [computer] keyboard, if you have Ukrainian music. Any demonstration of you being Ukrainian, and you are arrested," said Shelest, who's based in the southern Ukrainian port city of Odessa.
Russian control challenged
Ukraine's recent drone campaign has included strikes that cut electricity, cell phone service and water for extended periods. The daily attacks have also targeted Russian ships and ferries that deliver food, fuel, and other essential supplies from Russia.
Ukraine's military says in the past month it's hit more than 130 Russian vessels in the Sea of Azov and more than 80 in the Black Sea.
"Russia overestimated its own naval power and didn't expect these measures from us," said Dmytro Pletenchuk, the spokesman for Ukraine's Navy. "Now they're trying to catch up with our technology. But it takes them six months and we keep improving. Russia is now at a logistics dead end."
Russia still controls the entire coastline of the Sea of Azov, which is an inland sea. Yet Russia has effectively lost control of the water — losing it to a country that doesn't currently have traditional naval ships or sailors at sea.
Mark Montgomery says the Ukrainian Navy has been overachieving throughout the war.
"The Ukraine Navy is the most successful navy in the world without having a ship get underway for a day," said Montgomery.
Russia wiped out most of Ukraine's Navy in the initial 2014 incursion. When Russia launched its full-scale invasion in 2022, Ukraine intentionally sank its last major ship rather than accept an inevitable takeover by Russia's large Black Sea fleet.
Yet Ukraine still managed to fight back, damaging or sinking more than two dozen Russian ships and submarines, mostly by firing missiles from the Ukrainian mainland.
Russia then retreated, pulling back most of its warships to Russian ports on the eastern side of the Black Sea.
But Ukraine has gone on the offensive again, becoming the first country in the world to develop and deploy powerful sea drones that operate both on the water's surface and underwater.
"This is the advent of unmanned undersea vessels, unmanned surface vessels," said Mark Montgomery. "They're very small, very hard to track. [Russia] can control the whole coastline and not have visibility to what's going on in the middle of the inland sea."
Russia attacks international cargo ships
Russian forces still control all of Crimea, though some Russian civilians appear to be leaving. And while the Russians are suffering tough blows, they're also delivering some of their own.
The Russian Navy is striking international cargo ships that go to pick up Ukrainian corn, wheat, and sunflower oil in and around the port of Odessa.
Ten sailors were killed in one recent attack, and now most international ships have been scared away, says Hanna Shelest.
"These ships are not even Ukrainian. [They're] only guilty of coming to Ukraine," she said.
Ukraine, which depends heavily on agriculture, is now at the peak of its harvest season and has lost its main export route, she said. Ukraine is now looking to export by land, though this is a far less efficient alternative, and Ukraine's beleaguered economy is expected to suffer another hit.
Meanwhile, military analysts say Ukraine's forces are in no position to launch an offensive to retake Crimea. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently told Fox News that Ukraine isn't trying to recapture Crimea — at least for now.
"The land is very important. It's our territory. It's our history. It's about our houses. But the most important [thing is] not to lose people," Zelenskyy said.
Russia's Putin called Crimea "an inseparable part of Russia" when he seized it 12 years ago. Today, he's conspicuously silent about the troubles there.
Copyright 2026 NPR
